FRIDAY November 4, 2011

 

Steve Jobs on Life and Death

Steve Jobs in 1995, nine years before he was diagnosed with cancer:

I’ve always felt that death is the greatest invention of life. I’m sure that life evolved without death at first and found that without death, life didn’t work very well because it didn’t make room for the young. It didn’t know how the world was fifty years ago. It didn’t know how the world was twenty years ago. It saw it as it is today, without any preconceptions, and dreamed how it could be based on that. We’re not satisfied based on the accomplishment of the last thirty years. We’re dissatisfied because the current state didn’t live up to their ideals. Without death there would be very little progress.

A really interesting take on history and its value. One of my favorite insights from Steve Jobs.

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The Ideal MacBook

There are certain models of every Apple device that feel like the ideal – the ultimate – version of that product. The first iPod Nano, the stainless steal iMac, and the iPhone 4 are all examples of this. It seems like the 15″ Macbook Air (or whatever Apple names it) will be the ideal Mac notebook experience in that same way:

The best experience you can get on a notebook today is on a Macbook Air (11″ or 13″).  But we need even better battery-life and local storage.  The additional two inches of screen size provide room for additional batteries and allows Apple to price the device higher.  The higher price lets them put more local storage – I’m hoping fro 512 GB.

I have a strong feeling this will be the notebook many of us have been waiting for.

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Mona Simpson’s Eulogy for her Brother

His sister is a tremendously talented writer. An incredibly emotional and powerful story. Read this.

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What I Missed

I’ve been traveling.  And I missed a lot.

Apple launched iOS 5 and iCloud, the iPhone 4S went on sale, Netflix and HP both aborted plans for major business shifts, Google probably released a few different new versions of Android (perfect visual) that can’t run on most Android devices, RIM’s co-CEOs still exist, Microsoft made a pointless video demonstrating their disinterest in design and Apple released a new interface for interacting with machines.

But nothing really changed: Android is still fragmented, Google still doesn’t care about anything but selling ads, Microsoft will keep trying to sell mediocre software to businesses, RIM probably doesn’t need to be mentioned ever again, Netflix and HP will be fine, iPhones will keep selling by the millions and Siri will keep scaring the poop out of Google and Microsoft.

Steve Jobs is still no longer with us.  And that will change all of our lives more than anything that’s happened since he passed.

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FRIDAY October 7, 2011

 

Thoughts on iPhone 4S

This is the best phone ever made. It will become the fastest-selling consumer electronics device ever. The announcement exceeded my expectations.

Without question, the hardware improvements from 4 to 4S were more substantial than the improvements from 3G to 3GS and arguably more substantial than the 3GS to 4 update. Compared to the 3G to 3GS update, the speed improvements are greater, the camera improvements are comparable, the battery improvements are greater, and the networking improvements are better. But there were three key differences that seemed to put a damper on the 4S announcement this week:

  1. The announcement of the 3GS was accompanied by the unveiling of iOS 3, which brought many new software features to the device as well. This year, the iOS 5 software announcement and iPhone 4S hardware announcement were separate events.  It’s clear there is more potential for mobile software innovation than mobile hardware – and iOS 5 is indubitably the most meaningful iOS update ever.
  2. The form factor remained the same as the iPhone 4.  While some random case manufacturers may have expected otherwise, it should have been clear to the rest of us this would be the case.  And it was the right choice.  Besides incremental speed and camera updates, the iPhone hardware is functionally the same as it was on launch day in 2007.  The form factor has been updated twice – the largest benefit of which is the tangible representation of speed and software improvements that come with it.  Updated form factors drive excitement around product launches, but aren’t necessary to drive sales.  The average consumer is going to buy the iPhone – which ever version is the latest.  Apple geek consumers care about the experience of the device – which relies very little on form factor tweaks.  The 3GS substantially outsold the 3G, and the iPhone 4 is still the best selling phone in the world right now – 16 months after it was released.  There was no need to gratuitously generate extra excitement about improvements to the best-selling phone in the world, especially as there have been no substantial improvements to its competitors.
  3. Tim Cook, Phil Schiller and the other executives presenting clearly, and sadly, knew Steve’s passing was imminent.  Even from watching the event video you could tell something was different.  It wasn’t, as some ridiculous “journalists” wrote, Apple’s demise in the air.  It was Steve Jobs’.  The fate of Steve and Apple are no longer inextricably tied together – which is painful, heavy, and sad, but also encouraging and uplifting.

Most importantly, specific products aren’t intended to be revolutionary.  Apple is helping themselves and helping us by maintaining the same product form factor for two years.  They use this strategy across most of their products, which creates a more sustainable product release schedule for them and a reasonable upgrade schedule for us.

Apple’s updates to the current products won’t show us whether Apple still “has it” without Steve Jobs.  We must wait until next time Apple tries to revolutionize an industry to find that out – and that could still be years away.

UPDATE:
Some are claiming Steve left a four-year product roadmap for Apple.  I’m not convinced that roadmap includes entry into another new industry, but rather contains updates to the current product lines.

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Universe Dented

He may have been the best storyteller ever. He may have been a genius. One thing is for sure: his mindset was beautiful and unique. Let’s make it less unique.

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Steve Jobs Introduces iPhone

There are a lot of incredible Steve Jobs videos. Even re-watching many of them gives me goosebumps. This one is my favorite keynote.

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WEDNESDAY October 5, 2011

 

Steve Jobs, 1955 – 2011

Damn. What a life.

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Your First Great Apple TV App

AirPlay mirroring is easily my favorite announced iOS feature. Brad Nicholson for touchArcade, describing an update to the game Real Racing 2 for iPhone:

And that’s not all — iOS 5 is coming and so are a handful of features to Real Racing 2 that revolve around Airplay support. With the update, you’ll be able to wirelessly stream the game’s content to your TV. Also, if you’ve got friends with the game and an iPhone 4S or an iPad 2, you’ll be able to play with them in split-screen. “Party Play” mode will allow up to 4 players to compete on the same screen, provided the host has Apple’s new hotnesses.

Have fun doing that on your Samsung Blah Blah Blah using Android.

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Definitely Worth Remembering

David Ulevitch, founder and CEO of OpenDNS (via Giga Om):

It’s worth remembering that Google is open in many areas, but none of their openness is in the areas that matter.

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iPhone Lineup

Two interesting notes:

  1. Battery life increases for talk time but decreases for standby time.  Weird.  
  2. Yup, Siri is iPhone 4S-only.  I’m sure the software could run on iPhone 4, but Apple made this strategic decision in order to sell more new phones.  Since Apple makes its money on hardware sales and much of their mobile innovation is becoming software-driven, maybe they’re feeling pressure to attach certain software features to specific hardware.  Will be interesting to see if this continues to happen.

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Apps for Apple TV

AirPlay mirroring will be available in iOS 5 next week, which for all intents and purposes means the App Store for Apple TV is now open. Developers can simply build an iOS app that’s intended to be used in conjunction with the Apple TV. I’d be surprised if there are even 10 people who have Apple TV but not iPhone or iPad.

I wonder, though, whether app developers will be able to block AirPlay mirroring from being used within their apps. The ability to wirelessly mirror your iPhone or iPad screen on an HDTV has exciting implications for a bunch of app categories like gaming and business, but would also seem to enable AirPlay in video apps that have intentionally left AirPlay out for strategic or legal reasons (like WatchESPN, Hulu Plus, etc).

If developers can’t block it, will this cause content providers (like NBC) to ban their distribution counterparts (like Hulu) from having iOS apps at all? Can’t imagine Apple would let that happen for too long.

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THURSDAY September 22, 2011

 

Income tax rate 50 years ago

The income tax rate on the top tax bracket in 1961 in the United States was 91%.  You read that correctly.  Of course this is a marginal tax rate, so you’d only pay 91% on any money you made over $400,000.*  A flat income tax would change this: a flat tax rate could require every American to pay less than 20% of their income and still increase Federal tax revenues.

But the U.S. doesn’t have a flat tax, and unfortunately won’t any time soon.  So please consider the marginal income tax rate structure and how it may affect your perception of tax rates.  People in the top tax bracket today contribute 35% of any money they make beyond the first $379,150. The Federal government takes no more than $25,000 of the first $100,000 any American makes each year, and this will remain true regardless of upcoming tax reform.

NOTE: remember that wealthier people make much of their money on capital gains, which are taxed at a completely different (recently far lower) rate.

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ifttt: if this then that

Set an action to trigger another action. Examples:

    1. You tweet, this service can automatically save that tweet to Evernote for you.
    2. It’s going to rain, this service can automatically text you.
    3. You favorite a tweet, this service can automatically save any links in that tweet to Instapaper.
    4. Tons more – the most popular “recipes” are listed here.

Fun and useful.  And the “recipes” feature is a smart way to promote the service.  Hopefully we see a brands creating and promoting recipes that make their content accessible wherever people want it.  Give ifttt a try.

 

TUESDAY September 20, 2011

 

New Heinz Ketchup Packets Hold 3x More Ketchup

Sarah Nassauer for WSJ:

Since a supply spat between Heinz and McDonald’s that arose during a 1973 tomato shortage, Heinz, the country’s largest ketchup producer, has been locked out of most McDonald’s U.S. locations. Though Heinz didn’t design the new packet to get back in McDonald’s good graces, “that would be a wonderful side benefit,” says Heinz’s Mr. Bennett. The only McDonald’s serving Heinz now are in Minneapolis and Heinz’s hometown of Pittsburgh, he says.

There seem to be a lot of these no-longer-relevant historical “spats” between companies that, if overcome, could be an enormous windfall for one (or both) of the businesses.

The 3x larger-by-volume packets: a welcome update for my favorite condiment. Heinz finally took my advice (February 3, 2011).

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Google’s +1 button is coming to display ads

Google’s Inside Adwords blog:

For example, take Elaine, who sees an ad for discount flights. She +1’s the ad, thinking her friends might value similar deals. Now when Elaine’s friends and contacts are logged into Google and see the discount flight ad on any of the millions of GDN partner websites, they’ll see Elaine’s picture across the bottom of the ad with a note saying she +1’d it.

Interesting that ads will show users who have +1′d the specific ad rather than the brand. This causes the social context to kick in only if your connections have seen a specific ad. We know social context (putting the names and photos of your friends who like the brand that’s advertising into their ad units) increases Facebook ad performance tremendously. It’s surprising that Google launched this before brand pages exist on Google+, which would enable them to capture that performance lift through the friends of everyone who has +1′d the brand.

Most Facebook ads on the Facebook homepage are sold on a cost-per-impression basis, but if Google sells these display ads on a cost-per-click basis the social context performance lift could be a tremendous revenue-generator for them. Social context is also a key benefit that only Facebook can offer advertisers right now. If ads with social targeting and social context can be run through Google (across the web), there’s no reason for advertisers to limit their ads to run on only one (albeit high traffic) website.

Hopefully Facebook is enjoying their impressive ad revenue growth this year. It may not last for long.

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Government Good

The great Rick Webb, on his new project called Government Good:

I believe that the government can do some good from time to time. I believe that the public conversation has lost this. I believe that so many people believe the government is broken that it is in danger of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This isn’t a policy blog, this isn’t a political party or platform. It’s an exploration and reminder that the government can do some good.

This will be interesting, regardless of your political stripes.

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SUNDAY September 18, 2011

 

Let’s hope Netflix is ready soon

Reed Hastings, Co-founder and CEO, Netflix:

For the past five years, my greatest fear at Netflix has been that we wouldn’t make the leap from success in DVDs to success in streaming.

I like Reed Hastings.  But this line worried me right off the bat – hopefully this doesn’t indicate he makes decisions based on fear rather than vision.

Companies rarely die from moving too fast, and they frequently die from moving too slowly.

When Netflix is evolving rapidly, however, I need to be extra-communicative. This is the key thing I got wrong.

In hindsight, I slid into arrogance based upon past success. We have done very well for a long time by steadily improving our service, without doing much CEO communication. Inside Netflix I say, “Actions speak louder than words,” and we should just keep improving our service.

But now I see that given the huge changes we have been recently making, I should have personally given a full justification to our members of why we are separating DVD and streaming, and charging for both. It wouldn’t have changed the price increase, but it would have been the right thing to do.

Communication was a problem, but not the problem.  The problem was launching a product that wasn’t ready – and Reed Hastings knows it.  That’s what he means by “we should just keep improving our service.” Netflix’s streaming service alone didn’t (and still doesn’t) deliver on the promise of enabling subscribers to easily enjoy movies and TV shows.  When Netflix divided its business into two products by pricing DVDs and streaming separately, they were suddenly asking customers to pay for a product that wasn’t worth the price.  There is no question that streaming is the future of Netflix’s business, and adjusting the pricing model to move their business forward and move their customers to a new product was smart.  But the product wasn’t ready – it was still a just a feature of their original product.

So we realized that streaming and DVD by mail are becoming two quite different businesses, with very different cost structures, different benefits that need to be marketed differently, and we need to let each grow and operate independently. It’s hard for me to write this after over 10 years of mailing DVDs with pride, but we think it is necessary and best: In a few weeks, we will rename our DVD by mail service to “Qwikster”.

The way to communicate distinct offerings to a large customer base who doesn’t know or care who Reed Hastings is, is to create a brand.  We could question the name choice (why make the name rhyme with the second largest movies website, Flixster, instead of an extension of your current brand, “Qwikflix”?). We can question the decision to rename the old product instead of the new one (up for debate).  We can even question the decision to make Qwikster a separate company rather than a just new product brand (Qwikster.com reads “Qwikster, a Netflix Company” and the company has a CEO). But once they separated DVDs and streaming into two products by attaching individual prices, creating separate brands was the right move.

This transition will be difficult for Netflix/Qwikter, largely due to a trend that’s become common over the past decade and a half: singularity of company and product brand.  Many Internet companies have only one core product: their website (see Amazon, Facebook, Google, Netflix, etc). When this happen, the company’s product often ends up carrying the same name as their company.  This makes new product launches and transitions difficult to initiate because many new offerings should fall under your company brand, but should’t fall under your product brand.

When you launch new stuff, it has to either be a new feature in an existing product or a completely separate product itself.  Consumers don’t understand anything in between. Netflix found their streaming service stuck in “no man’s land” when they announced an individual price for it without providing an individual brand.  It became a feature masquerading as a product. By separating the DVD product and calling it Qwikster, thereby giving the name Netflix to the streaming product alone, “Netflix” is still a feature madquerading as a product but it’s clearer the company is dedicated to making it a productnoRor “Netflix” (the streaming product) to deserve its own name and pricing, it must be worth its price.

It comes down to this: when Reed Hastings and Netflix realized their DVDs-by-mail service and their streaming service had to become distinct businesses, the first step should’ve been to ensure each product was strong enough to support itself.  When they gave streaming its own pricing and membership, they were asking people to pay for a feature, for the price of a product. Netflix will eventually develop their streaming feature into a killer standalone product by providing a sufficient breadth of content, but it was a mistake to separate pricing and naming before the product was ready.

Netflix tried to transition their customers to a new product too early – not because customers weren’t ready, but because the product itself wasn’t ready.  Unfortunately it still isn’t.  Let’s hope Netflix is ready soon.

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WEDNESDAY August 31, 2011

 

What’s your plan?

WSJ:

Sprint Nextel Corp. will begin selling the new version of the Apple iPhone in mid-October, people familiar with the matter said, filling a huge hole in the No. 3 U.S. carrier’s lineup and giving Apple Inc. another sales channel for its popular gadget.

The only question remaining is whether Sprint will continue offering unlimited smartphone data and messaging plans from $79.99. If so, it’s a great option for anyone who missed getting grandfathered into an unlimited data plan with AT&T or Verizon.

Unlimited data was vital to the iPhone’s initial success in 2007. At the time, smartphones (read: Blackberrys) were mostly corporate devices and didn’t automatically come with unlimited data. When the iPhone came out, people could tell their friends “every single iPhone comes with unlimited access to the Internet and web”. This was key in getting the average feature-phone-toting consumer to understand the value of the iPhone and to feel comfortable using all of its capabilities.

I remember using my last feature-phone and constantly fearing extra charges from accidentally tapping the AT&T mobile web button. It was important for Apple to completely eradicate that thought process as quickly as possible.

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WEDNESDAY August 24, 2011

 

The Irreplaceable Man

John Gruber:

How do you replace the irreplaceable man? Like we’re seeing. An open-ended medical leave, where he retains the CEO title. A continuation of strong new products, including a major improvement to the iPad, the device that is upending the entire computer industry. The ceding of day-to-day operations and leadership to Tim Cook, his right-hand man and chosen successor. Ever-higher profiles during public product announcements of top product-focused lieutenants like Phil Schiller, Scott Forstall, and Eddy Cue.

The simple answer to “How do you replace the irreplaceable man?” is “you don’t”. Fortunately, Apple knows that. A person who so intimately and deeply understands simplicity and elegance of design, and possibilities of technology and how to appeal to the human psyche cannot and should not be replaced. This is why Apple would never fill Steve Jobs’ position with Jack Dorsey or Scott Forstall. Doing so would indicate Apple trying to approximate Steve’s presence as closely as possible, which could only lead to disappointment in failing to duplicate him exactly. Instead, Apple has elevated the man who has long enabled Apple’s vision to come to life but will not try to replace Steve Jobs, only succeed him.

Apple makes its profits selling hardware and Apple devices are their most powerful branding tool. For the past 13 years at Apple, and even in his IBM and Compaq days, no one has been better at making great hardware than Tim Cook. Apple is in the right hands.

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