Just for fun, I looked at the hypothetical impact on Apple’s iPhone profit and Samsung’s mobile unit profit if Samsung had accepted Apple’s offer to license its smartphone patents to Samsung for $30 per device sale. Based on Samsung smartphone unit sales of 21.25 million smartphones over the period, they would have paid Apple $637.5 million in licensing fees for smartphones. The impact, over the 8 quarters from Q3 2010 through Q2 2012:
Apple’s total iPhone profit would be 1% higher, increasing from $47.95B to $49.59B.
Samsung’s total mobile unit profit would be 4.98% lower, decreasing from $13.43B to $12.79B.
Not a world-changing impact on either unit’s profitability, but much bigger impact on Samsung than Apple. This calcuation assumes such a licensing agreement would not have impacted consumer demand, which seems reasonable. Mass market consumers may have cared for the week the deal was announced, but never again.