What if Samsung Had Accepted Apple’s Smartphone Patents Licensing Offer?

Just for fun, I looked at the hypothetical impact on Apple’s iPhone profit and Samsung’s mobile unit profit if Samsung had accepted Apple’s offer to license its smartphone patents to Samsung for $30 per device sale. Based on Samsung smartphone unit sales of 21.25 million smartphones over the period, they would have paid Apple $637.5 million in licensing fees for smartphones. The impact, over the 8 quarters from Q3 2010 through Q2 2012:

Apple’s total iPhone profit would be 1% higher, increasing from $47.95B to $49.59B.

Samsung’s total mobile unit profit would be 4.98% lower, decreasing from $13.43B to $12.79B.

Not a world-changing impact on either unit’s profitability, but much bigger impact on Samsung than Apple. This calcuation assumes such a licensing agreement would not have impacted consumer demand, which seems reasonable. Mass market consumers may have cared for the week the deal was announced, but never again.

Calculation data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AjSGTQ_Ti9JVdEREbzZJNmlUMExwVEk4SDBRc05IblE&output=html

 

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